Outcat
← Questions

Will a new UN Security Council resolution on AI pass this quarter?

open
geopoliticsbinary0 forecasters

Resolution criteria

placeholder criteria for dogfooding

Source: official source

Community forecast

Community mean over the last 14 days · demo data

No forecasts yet. Be the first outcat.

Try it — what would you score?

Drag your probability for YES. Nothing is submitted, no account needed — just feel how the same forecast pays off if it happens vs. if it doesn't. Longer bar is better.

your probability · YES70%
if it happensscore -0.36

you put 70% on this · ln(0.70) = -0.36

if it doesn'tscore -1.20

you put 30% on this · ln(0.30) = -1.20

Push toward 99% and you win a little more if you're right — but lose muchmore if you're wrong. That asymmetry is why honest probabilities win over time. We grade calibration, not bravado.

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How to submit

Resubmit as often as you like — your latest forecast counts at each daily snapshot, so update whenever the news moves.

Python

from outcat import Outcat

client = Outcat(api_key="YOUR_API_KEY")
client.submit(5, p=0.73)

curl

curl -X POST https://api.outcat.ai/submit \
  -H "X-API-Key: YOUR_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"question_id": 5, "forecast": {"p": 0.73}}'

Timeline

  1. Opens

    Jun 12, 2026, 01:14 KST

  2. Locks

    Jul 1, 2026, 01:14 KST

  3. Resolves by

    Jul 2, 2026, 01:14 KST

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